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  <channel><title>Jamie Flournoy's blog</title><link>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/</link><description>Entries in Jamie Flournoy's personal blog.</description><language>en-us</language><sy:updatePeriod>daily</sy:updatePeriod>


  
  












<item><title>Entry for April 18, 2010</title><guid>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/april2010.shtml#2010_4_18</guid><link>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/april2010.shtml#2010_4_18</link><description><![CDATA[<p>Over the New Year's Day weekend, Kim and I drove up the coast to see
       	<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eureka,_California">Eureka</a> and the
	<a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/matties-pancake-and-omelette-brookings-2">southernmost
	coastal attractions in Oregon</a>.
	I was inspired to learn a little bit about what had made Eureka successful initially, and
	what kept it from being a major coastal city today. At first it was a gold rush port, then
	it became a logging and fishing town, ultimately nearly consuming these resources. Not a
	very complicated story, then: unsustainable consumption of natural resources yields a
	short-term boom and a long-term bust. It's the same story as the gold rush, but with trees
	and fish.</p><p>This led me to do some research about what exactly kept towns from Eureka from
        reinventing themselves and finding new ways to be successful. Living and working in such
	close proximity to Silicon Valley for over a decade now, I admit that my perspective is no
	longer one of "how is this area so successful?"	but rather one of "what is everybody else
	doing wrong?"</p><p>It may seem unfair to compare a post-industrial economy with a pre-industrial one, but
	that's exactly my point. If you identifed that there was in fact some kind of Moore's
	Law equivalent for logging (based on labor inflows, 
	<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_donkey">steam powered logging technology</a>,
	or better transportation via boat or rail), you'd still end up with an industry collapse as
	soon as the trees were all gone. Theoretically you could halt growth at a sustainable level
	before that happened, but in practice this doesn't happen. Only after the collapse, when
	there's no surplus left to consume, does the industry stop growing and stabilize at a rate
	that's sustainable. You get whatever you can cultivate, because there's nothing else left.
	For fishing and logging this is just large-scale agriculture; for resources that replenish
	on a geological timetable such as gold or fossil fuels, it's game over.</p><p>If an economy is to grow sustainably, it obviously can't be pegged to the rate of consumption
	of raw materials. We industrialized, and got a better equation: number of workers times
	productivity per worker. More workers equals more work produced, but the number of workers
	can't sustainably increase. Fortunately, increased productivity is another option. It may
	be encumbered by a connection to raw materials via energy consumption, but even that can
	be optimized.</p><p>Consider the industry of home construction. It is tied to raw materials,	but the specific
	materials can be changed, assuming you have people who are smart enough to figure out how
	to build a house out of new materials. Redwoods grow slowly but bamboo grows
	quickly, and it's probably possible to find (or genetically engineer) some kind of super
	bamboo that grows 10 times faster, if that ever became the limiting factor on construction
	productivity. Individual productivity has also been boosted by materials that are easier to
	work with (drywall is much faster to install than wet plaster over wood slats) and of course
	advances in tools. But better techniques can also increase productivity; instead of
	manufacturing a home on-site outdoors, you can buy a
	<a href="http://www.fabprefab.com/fabfiles/fablisthome.htm">really nice pre-fab house</a>
	and have it delivered to and assembled at your site.</p><p>The lesson here is that while it probably takes a fixed number of house builders a similar
	amount of time to build a house now as it did 150 years ago, you get a much better house
	because of technology improvements and industrialization, which make the workers more
	productive. That productivity growth is what allows the economy to grow, but only if
	someone somewhere is figuring out how to build a cordless drill or a bamboo house, and if
	the skill to use them is acquired by the construction workers.</p><p>That better house translates to economic activity. Whatever the reason (safer materials,
	better energy efficiency, more space, better decor, higher quality, more conveniences),
	once it's sufficiently desirable, people will move up. Older houses will devalue and
	eventually be demolished. This has been happening for millenia. Yes, you can live in a
	yurt, and you can make calls on a rotary land-line phone. But would you?</p><p>I'll skip the philosophical issues of "do we really need new things" and "what happens to
	the old things" for now. I'll just say that landfill space is another kind of exhaustible
	resource, and if we can't at least agree that having indoor plumbing and bicycles is better
	than walking all day to get water for your family, then you're too radically anti-technology
	 even for <a href="http://www.dancingrabbit.org/">an ecovillage</a>. They even have
	<a href="http://www.dancingrabbit.org/tour/tour_vehicle.php">internal-combustion cars</a>!</p><p>So far I'm basically stating the obvious: every politician and CEO loves to talk about how
	innovation and education are great. But we don't want innovation if it costs anybody a
	job, and we don't want to educate people if it means that we have to change what we teach
	and how we teach it.</p><p>The innovation argument is very well addressed by Dr. T. J. Rodgers in his
	<a href="http://www.cypress.com/?rID=34978">testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee in
	1998</a>. He's talking about labor protectionism in the form of anti-immigration policy,
	but his argument also touches upon the shortage of U.S. citizens with engineering degrees.
	Another study of backfiring regulation is the Wall Street Journal's 
	<a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120450306595906431.html">Texas v. Ohio</a>.
	These are not radical anti-regulatory wingnuts claiming that thalidomide and lead paint
	ain't so bad. These are simply arguments that trying to legislate a healthy economy by
	mandating the outcome is equivalent to applying a clamping force: when you limit the
	bottom end of the scale you inevitably limit the top end, and when you remove any variation in
	either direction, there's
	no reason for anyone to take a risk because the outcome will always be the same. And risk
	is the heart of innovation.</p><p>Education in the US has a similar innovation problem, in that we are obsessed with teaching
	in a specific industrialized way that hasn't changed in decades, except to add some
	mandatory tests that show how ineffective it is. The mode of teaching hasn't changed, but
	the material has; even the textbooks must now reflect the material convered in the test
	instead of the material that the teachers think their students should actually be learning.
	More than ever, students
	are learning that to succeed they must learn to conform to a single definition of a good
	student, which is the student who can memorize a large amount of data and retain it for
	a few days. 
	Acquiring obscure knowledge, understanding the data, questioning accepted wisdom, drawing new
	conclusions, and taking a risk on a different approach are skills which are actively
	discouraged.
	Teachers are painfully aware of this but are not empowered to take risks themselves to
	improve the system. Again, hyperregulation of outcomes leads to a clamping force preventing
	both failure and success. We are left with teachers who fall into one of two categories: ones who
	are so passionate that they are willing to teach within this system out of a sense of civic
	duty, and the ones who are glad to have found a job where their performance has no impact
	on their career as long as they don't break any rules.</p><p>In both cases, we agree that we want good results, but we're so afraid of bad results that we
	eliminate risk, and in so doing we eliminate any chance of improvement.</p><p>Stagnation is not an option; if we're afraid to compete against ourselves because that
	would mean not everybody gets to be the winner, we're nevertheless still competing at a
	global level. Somebody out there is willing to work more hours for less pay at an unskilled
	job than you are. The only way to win at that game is to move up to a higher level where
	the people who can compete with you had to get a decent education and won't settle for a 
	house that has a dirt floor.</p><p>Fortunately for us, other countries that may be growing faster than the United States are
	not necessarily	more nimble than we are; they may have stumbled onto an advantageous situation
	(such as a billion farmers who would rather work in a factory) by chance. They may be stuck
	in an inflexible situation that happens to be working well for them. All we need to do is
	to adapt and learn from their successes faster than they do, and we'll beat them. But we
	shouldn't have to wait for other countries to prove to us that they had it right and we
	had it wrong. We should be leading.</p><p>How do we do that? Simple, but not easy: by competing with ourselves. It has to be possible
	for us to fail, and to succeed, and we have to have control over the decisions that lead
	to our success or failure. If we're not allowed to improve the way we do our jobs, if
	our employer keeps getting rescued by taxpayers every time they screw up, and if the
	folks who keep screwing up are the only ones who get a bonus when things aren't so
	dire, at some point you just give up, or you leave (or get fired for rocking the boat).
	There's a reason that the economic powerhouse of Silicon Valley is full of companies that
	give all of their employees stock options, and is also full of stories of startups that
	cratered. It's not just a matter of making people work harder; people with skin in the
	game are less willing to keep their mouths shut when they have a big idea or when they
	see someone about to run the company off a cliff. They're less willing to hang around
	at a company that's dying if they know that there won't be a soft landing or last minute
	rescue. Better to abandon ship and get working for a healthy company whose stock options
	won't turn out to be worthless.</p><p>The Texas vs. Ohio article shows how we can compete at a meta level: by setting up
	competing systems in which competition takes place. Overarching federal regulations
	result in a monoculture that allows only one option to be tried at a time. By contrast,
	when states are able to try a variety of different approaches, we can see what works
	far more quickly.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, auto makers like states that have lower taxes. But surprisingly, they like
	this so much that they're willing to overlook the labor pool of unemployed experienced
	auto workers and the existing heavy industrial infrastructure in states like Ohio,
	choosing to start over from scratch in Texas. It's just not worth it. And in TJ Rodgers'
	testimony, he shows that increased immigration actually raises average wages, and creates
	more jobs than the immigrant workers filled. In both cases we needed a variety of data
	points to figure out what the right decision was. If every state had the same labor
	laws as Ohio, all we'd know is that all of our auto manufacturing jobs were gone. But
	with the counterexample of Texas, we know what Ohio did wrong and how to fix it.</p><p>Any stockbroker can tell you that risk is tied to reward; if you want absolutely zero risk,
	you actually have a tough time keeping up with inflation. No risk is actually a recipe for
	a slow decline. If you take bigger risks you might lose everything, but on average
	over a long period of time, you win more than you lose, and end up with more than if you
	had chosen a less risky investment for the same period. Everyone has to decide how much
	risk they're comfortable with, but zero risk is not a viable long term strategy.</p><p>That same metaphor applies to governance. There are plenty of unacceptable downsides to a
	completely ungoverned world, but we have more choices than just communism vs. anarchy.
	There's a lot of leeway in between Mad Max and 1984. We need to try out a lot of
	different things, and we can't do that if we're still using the federal government to
	force everyone to do the same thing.</p><p>I generally agree with the idea of limited government, but I don't think most people
	agree on exactly what that looks like. We don't need to agree, though; we just need to
	let our ideas compete. There's no faster way to get the country back on track.</p>]]></description></item>


<item><title>Entry for April 17, 2010</title><guid>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/april2010.shtml#2010_4_17</guid><link>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/april2010.shtml#2010_4_17</link><description><![CDATA[<p>I joined <a href="http://www.like.com/aboutus.py">Like.com</a> a month ago to be the lead engineer on <a href="http://www.weardrobe.com/">Weardrobe</a>, and so far it's a lot of fun.</p>]]></description></item>


<item><title>Entry for March 27, 2010</title><guid>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/march2010.shtml#2010_3_27</guid><link>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/march2010.shtml#2010_3_27</link><description><![CDATA[<p>Funny: <a href="http://www.vimeo.com/2809991">Star Wars: Retold (by someone who hasn't seen it)</a>.</p>]]></description></item>

<item><title>Entry for March 11, 2010</title><guid>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/march2010.shtml#2010_3_11</guid><link>http://www.white-mountain.org/jamie/news/march2010.shtml#2010_3_11</link><description><![CDATA[<p>On Sunday I made a visit to the emergency dentist for a severe toothache. I had been hoping to put this visit off until I had new dental insurance, but teeth get angry on their own schedule. The tooth had previously been drilled &amp; filled, and had been sensitive to cold afterward (which my normal dentist told me was due to receding gums from overbrushing), and was painful to bite down on. As a result, this wasn't surprising. But the ice water required to keep it from being excruciatingly painful told me it was gonna need a root canal. The dentist agreed and got to work. Yesterday I went back for the second visit, in which the reconstruction took place.</p><p>In the past when I have needed a crown over a root canal, it has taken over a week to have it fabricated at some remote location and mailed to my dentist for installation. In the meantime I have had to have a temporary crown in place that has to be glued on and then pried off (which is not a comfortable process!) so that the permanent crown can be installed. This time, <a href="http://www.unionstreetdentalcare.com/">Union Street Dental Care</a>'s Dr. Dintcho was able to design and fabricate the crown in about half an hour using a <a href="http://www.cereconline.com/cerec/milling.html">CEREC 3</a> system. This is a combination of a CAD/CAM workstation called the <a href="http://www.cereconline.com/cerec/acquisition-center.html">Acquisition Center</a>, which is used to photograph and model the patient's teeth and to design a restoration, and a milling machine that fabricates the restoration from a small ceramic block.</p><p>I think this system is fascinating, and so I dug up a<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lt_y0VvAReE">CEREC crown video that shows the whole process</a> (this video includes a glazing step that wasn't used in my case), and a separate <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H-P5bOiLwg">video that more clearly shows the CEREC milling machine in action</a>. (Incidentally, this system is also an <a href="http://www.nvidia.com/object/sirona_success.html">NVIDIA case study</a>.)</p>]]></description></item>

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